Too easy: Predicting the pending Oscar nominations

We already know who will win the Academy Awards. The question is, who will be nominated?


Yes, that’s backwards. But the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards have started the wave for “The Social Network,” director David Fincher and performers Christian Bale, Natalie Portman and Colin Firth to surf to nigh-certain Oscar victory. But, if a nomination — especially among the 10 Best Picture candidates — brings attention to deserving films that previously had small audiences, then the Academy has done its job.
So, with the nomination announcement coming Tuesday, I’m going to place some early bets and share which actors and films most likely are going to join the Oscar race, or be cut out of it:

 Definitely in

“The Social Network” likely will lead all films with the most nominees: Best Picture. Jessie Eisenberg for actor, Andrew Garfield for supporting actor. Globe winners Fincher for director, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for score and Aaron Sorkin for screenplay.
“The King’s Speech” is most probable to give “Network” a run for its money in number of noms. Best Picture, Firth for actor, Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham-Carter for supporting roles, Tom Hooper for director.
Also for Best Picture will be “The Fighter,” which is an actor’s showcase. Best Supporting Actress likely will be a hotly contested virtual slapfight between Amy Adams and Melissa Leo. And Bale’s supporting-actor nomination is a death-and-taxes certainty.
Oddly, the Globes ignored “True Grit,” but Oscar will make up for it. Look for a Best Picture nod, Jeff Bridges for lead actor consideration, Hailee Steinfeld for supporting actress (although she’s an obvious lead, Paramount is campaigning for her in this category) and the Coen Bros. for director.
Of course, Portman will be the Queen of the Ball, all glowing and pregnant, holding her golden Oscar. “Black Swan,” which is becoming a hot, word-of-mouth box-office success, is good for Best Picture, too. “Winter’s Bone” will get nods for Best Picture and Best Actress, for Jennifer Lawrence.

Other sure bets: “Inception” and Christopher Nolan for picture and director. Annette Bening (“The Kids are All Right”) and Nicole Kidman (“Rabbit Hole”) for actress. James Franco (“127 Hours”) for actor. And if “Toy Story 3” doesn’t get Best Picture and Best Animated Feature nominations, Big Baby may break the Academy’s legs.

On the cusp

The Best Picture and Best Director categories are overflowing with talent this year, and several qualified candidates will end up on the cutting room floor.
For picture, “127 Hours,” “The Town” and “The Kids are All Right” will vie for the final two spots. “Blue Valentine” has an outside shot for one of them, as well.
There are so many exceptional directorial efforts this year, some of them regrettably will be ignored. All more than worthy, Darren Aronofsky (“Black Swan”), David O. Russell (“The Fighter”) and Danny Boyle (“127 Hours”) may battle for inclusion. Unfortunately, I only foresee rough sledding ahead for Lisa Cholodenko (“The Kids are All Right”), Debra Granik (“Winter’s Bone”) and Lee Unkrich (“Toy Story 3”).
And some interesting awards-season developments occurred this week, when Noomi Rapace (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”) and the recently passed Pete Postlethwaite (“The Town”) earned Best Supporting nods from the British Academy. We’ll see if Oscar follows suit.

Definitely out

”Never Let Me Go” and “The Ghost Writer” have lost the little momentum they might have had, and Greta Gerwig (“Greenberg”) has exited the conversation completely — all unfortunate turns. Those of us who saw Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s “Biutiful” are still fighting the subsequent depressive bummer it incurs. Hokey melodrama “Country Strong” didn’t have the impact of “Crazy Heart.” Sofia Coppola’s “Somewhere” doesn’t leave the impression that her masterful “Lost in Translation” did. Clint Eastwood’s “Hereafter” doesn’t have a ghost of a chance. And “Marmaduke” is out. Definitely out.

My suicide pick

In a world where “District 9” got a Best Picture nod, my prayer to the irrational Movie Gods is to show “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” a little Oscar love. It’s best bet is in technical categories, for its editing and groundbreaking visual effects. But wouldn’t it be wonderful if the stodgy, conservative Oscars recognized Edgar Wright for Best Director. A performance of Sex Bob-Omb’s “Garbage Truck” (written by Beck!) would spice up the ceremony considerably. And screenplay consideration would be nice (“Did you really see a future with this girl?” “Like ... with jet-packs?”), but unrealistic, for they are the Academy, and they are here to make you think about death and get sad and stuff.