“The Social Network,” which was once considered as likely as 90 percent certain to win by betting markets, is now given only about a 20 percent chance. “The King’s Speech,” instead, has become the heavy favorite.
It’s tempting to say that the conventional wisdom has gotten ahead of itself. Even if “The King’s Speech” seems to have some momentum, recently having picked up awards from the directors’ and producers’ guilds, “The Social Network” has still won significantly more hardware over the course of the entire season, including the Golden Globes.
Not all awards are created equal, however. And “The King’s Speech” has been winning the awards that matter the most.
The analysis that follows is very simple: I’ve taken the winners of 10 major awards over the past 25 years and seen whether they matched the Academy’s pick for best picture. The awards I’ve considered include those given out by the directors, producers, and screen actors’ guilds — each of these have been won by “The King’s Speech.” I’ve also looked at the Golden Globes, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (the Baftas), and several awards given out by film societies and film critics. All of these have been won by “The Social Network,” except for the Baftas, which have yet to be awarded.
The only real trick is that, in some cases, the winner of the Academy Award for best picture was ineligible to win one of the others for one of four reasons: (i) because the award did not yet exist; (ii) because, in the case of the Golden Globes, the film was nominated as a comedy or musical rather than a drama; (iii) because, in the case of the Baftas, it was nominated in a different year because it had a later release date in Britain; (iv) because a foreign-language film won the award in question, and those are given their own category by the Academy.
We toss out these cases; for the rest, we just tally up the hits and misses. As you’ll see, there are some fairly stark differences:
The most reliable award in predicting best picture is that given out by the Directors Guild of America. If one wants to be pedantic, the award is that for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a film, rather than for the film itself. Nevertheless, it has matched the Oscar winner for best picture in 19 out of the last 25 years, the last exception having been 2005, when the Academy — like the Directors Guild — picked Ang Lee as Best Director for “Brokeback Mountain,” but gave its best picture award to “Crash” instead.
The Producers Guild Awards have also done well since their debut in 1989, when they made something of a splash by picking “Driving Miss Daisy,” as the Academy did, in a year when most other awards went with choices like “Born on the Fourth of July.” The Producers Guild Award has matched the Academy’s pick for best picture on 14 of 21 occasions.
The Golden Globes have a decent overall track record, getting the winner right in 14 of the last 22 instances, excluding cases where the Academy Award winner for best picture was nominated as a comedy or musical by the Golden Globes rather than as a drama. However, they have been unreliable lately, failing to match the Oscars in five of the last six years, including last year when they picked “Avatar” rather than “The Hurt Locker.”
The only other award that has matched the Academy at least half the time is that given out by the Broadcast Film Critics, which has called the winner correctly on 9 of 15 occasions since its debut in 1995. Still — although the preferences of the Broadcast Film Critics tend to be more mainstream than that of some of their counterparts — most of the other critics’ awards are extremely poor predictors of the Academy’s choice; the award given out by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, for instance, has matched the Academy’s preference just 17 percent of the time.
The Screen Actors Guild award for best cast has not done poorly, having matched the Academy’s pick for best film in 7 of the last 15 years, including in a couple of instances (1998 for “Shakespeare in Love” and 2005 for “Crash”) when it correctly predicted major upsets. It has strayed in other cases, like last year’s pick of “Inglourious Basterds.”
Overall, the pattern is clear: the awards given out by insiders — directors, producers, actors — are better predictors than those given out by outsiders like critics. And so is the reason: the people voting for these awards are more likely to be members of the Academy.
That speaks well for “The King’s Speech,” which has swept the three guild awards, something which has only happened on six previous occasions. In those cases, the same film won the Academy Award five times, the exception being 1995, when the Academy picked “Braveheart” in an upset. (The Golden Globes and Baftas also missed that year, each opting for “Sense and Sensibility”).
“The Social Network” is perhaps not a complete lost cause — and we’ll be examining some of the other factors that predict Academy voting over the course of the next few weeks.
Still, while it was initially looking like “The Social Network” might have the sort of year that “Schindler’s List” did in 1993, when it swept “insider” and “outsider” awards alike, a schism has emerged this year — and it’s one that favors “The King’s Speech.”
It’s tempting to say that the conventional wisdom has gotten ahead of itself. Even if “The King’s Speech” seems to have some momentum, recently having picked up awards from the directors’ and producers’ guilds, “The Social Network” has still won significantly more hardware over the course of the entire season, including the Golden Globes.
Not all awards are created equal, however. And “The King’s Speech” has been winning the awards that matter the most.
The analysis that follows is very simple: I’ve taken the winners of 10 major awards over the past 25 years and seen whether they matched the Academy’s pick for best picture. The awards I’ve considered include those given out by the directors, producers, and screen actors’ guilds — each of these have been won by “The King’s Speech.” I’ve also looked at the Golden Globes, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (the Baftas), and several awards given out by film societies and film critics. All of these have been won by “The Social Network,” except for the Baftas, which have yet to be awarded.
The only real trick is that, in some cases, the winner of the Academy Award for best picture was ineligible to win one of the others for one of four reasons: (i) because the award did not yet exist; (ii) because, in the case of the Golden Globes, the film was nominated as a comedy or musical rather than a drama; (iii) because, in the case of the Baftas, it was nominated in a different year because it had a later release date in Britain; (iv) because a foreign-language film won the award in question, and those are given their own category by the Academy.
We toss out these cases; for the rest, we just tally up the hits and misses. As you’ll see, there are some fairly stark differences:
The most reliable award in predicting best picture is that given out by the Directors Guild of America. If one wants to be pedantic, the award is that for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a film, rather than for the film itself. Nevertheless, it has matched the Oscar winner for best picture in 19 out of the last 25 years, the last exception having been 2005, when the Academy — like the Directors Guild — picked Ang Lee as Best Director for “Brokeback Mountain,” but gave its best picture award to “Crash” instead.
The Producers Guild Awards have also done well since their debut in 1989, when they made something of a splash by picking “Driving Miss Daisy,” as the Academy did, in a year when most other awards went with choices like “Born on the Fourth of July.” The Producers Guild Award has matched the Academy’s pick for best picture on 14 of 21 occasions.
The Golden Globes have a decent overall track record, getting the winner right in 14 of the last 22 instances, excluding cases where the Academy Award winner for best picture was nominated as a comedy or musical by the Golden Globes rather than as a drama. However, they have been unreliable lately, failing to match the Oscars in five of the last six years, including last year when they picked “Avatar” rather than “The Hurt Locker.”
The only other award that has matched the Academy at least half the time is that given out by the Broadcast Film Critics, which has called the winner correctly on 9 of 15 occasions since its debut in 1995. Still — although the preferences of the Broadcast Film Critics tend to be more mainstream than that of some of their counterparts — most of the other critics’ awards are extremely poor predictors of the Academy’s choice; the award given out by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, for instance, has matched the Academy’s preference just 17 percent of the time.
The Screen Actors Guild award for best cast has not done poorly, having matched the Academy’s pick for best film in 7 of the last 15 years, including in a couple of instances (1998 for “Shakespeare in Love” and 2005 for “Crash”) when it correctly predicted major upsets. It has strayed in other cases, like last year’s pick of “Inglourious Basterds.”
Overall, the pattern is clear: the awards given out by insiders — directors, producers, actors — are better predictors than those given out by outsiders like critics. And so is the reason: the people voting for these awards are more likely to be members of the Academy.
That speaks well for “The King’s Speech,” which has swept the three guild awards, something which has only happened on six previous occasions. In those cases, the same film won the Academy Award five times, the exception being 1995, when the Academy picked “Braveheart” in an upset. (The Golden Globes and Baftas also missed that year, each opting for “Sense and Sensibility”).
“The Social Network” is perhaps not a complete lost cause — and we’ll be examining some of the other factors that predict Academy voting over the course of the next few weeks.
Still, while it was initially looking like “The Social Network” might have the sort of year that “Schindler’s List” did in 1993, when it swept “insider” and “outsider” awards alike, a schism has emerged this year — and it’s one that favors “The King’s Speech.”
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