The Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories traditionally occur early during Oscar night, and they can be notorious — setting reputations in stone (Heath Ledger) or footnoting them forever (Marisa Tomei and the legend of Jack Palance's supposed "mistaken" reading of the winner). But this year, these slots are either locked or ready for a regal upset, depending on whom you believe.
Best Supporting Actress
For Best Supporting Actress, Helena Bonham Carter, in only her second Oscar shot in a 25-year career, could be swept in on a wave for "The King's Speech." Nominated previously for 1997's "The Wings of the Dove," the English actress' turn as the queen mother opposite Colin Firth's King George VI satisfies a few of the Academy's fixations: overdue respect, a varied résumé and a character who resides in Buckingham Palace.
If she wins, she'd break Melissa Leo's months-long grip on the race. Leo's real competition, however, could be from her co-star in "The Fighter," Amy Adams. Leo, a native New Yorker, was memorable as a boxer's hellcat mother, but in terms of nominations, Oscar voters have been enchanted by Adams three times now, the most of anyone here ("True Grit's" Hailee Steinfeld and "Animal Kingdom's" Jacki Weaver are both first-timers). If this race goes 15 rounds, that's where the drama could be. Joe Neumaier
Best Supporting Actor
In contrast, the Best Supporting Actor award feels like one of the night's surest bets. Those who saw "Winter's Bone" associate it with Best Actress nominee Jennifer Lawrence — which will leave her castmate, John Hawkes, out in the cold. Though Mark Ruffalo was charming in "The Kids Are All Right," charm is acknowledged with nominations, not trophies.
Returning for the second year in a row, "The Town's" Jeremy Renner continues to establish himself as a true talent. But after his breakout turn in "The Hurt Locker," voters will wait until he makes another movie of similar significance, or takes a central role of equal weight, before rewarding him with a win.
The best chance for an upset comes from Geoffrey Rush, and in another year, the "King's Speech" co-star might have benefited from the same Anglo-centric support Bonham Carter would like.
But this category happens to include an actor who turned a supporting role into his film's most memorable performance: When you think of "The Fighter," it's not lead Mark Wahlberg who initially comes to mind, but Christian Bale, as his needy, crack-addicted brother. That's why on Sunday night, it's Bale who will win the judges' decision. Elizabet
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